|
아프가니스탄. 아프가니스탄의 ISKP 무장세력은 시리아와 터키의 조직이 터키에 있는 유럽 외교 시설을 공격하도록 지시할 가능성이 높습니다. 터키 정보부는 이스탄불에 있는 스웨덴과 네덜란드 외교 시설과 교회에 대한 공격을 계획한 혐의로 ISKP 무장세력을 체포했습니다. [55] ISKP는 6월 28일 꾸란의 소각을 허용한 후 스웨덴에 대한 폭력적인 보복을 촉구했습니다. [56] 터키 경찰은 6월 모집에 연루된 ISKP와 연계된 타직 국민을 체포했습니다. [57]ISKP는 이전에 터키의 네트워크를 사용하여 빠르면 2021년에 아프가니스탄에서 그룹을 위한 자금을 확보하고 이라크와 시리아의 중앙 IS 지도부와 관계를 유지했지만 터키의 반복적인 공격에서 알 수 있듯이 동일한 네트워크를 사용하여 유럽 목표물을 직접 공격할 수 있습니다. ISKP 무장세력 체포.
ISKP는 또한 시리아 Idlib에 있는 이슬람 국가 조직에 지시하여 유럽 표적에 대한 공격을 수행할 수 있습니다. 시리아 북부 이들리브에 위치한 우즈베키스탄과 타지키스탄 국민으로 구성된 IS 세포는 미국이 전 IS 지도자 압둘라 카르다쉬를 살해한 후 2022년 2월부터 ISKP에 지시를 내리기 시작했습니다. [58] ISKP는 아프가니스탄에서의 ISKP 캠페인을 반영하여 이러한 IS 세포에 대한 ISKP의 명령과 통제를 보여주면서 이러한 우즈벡 및 타지크 세포에 공격을 종교적 소수자를 표적으로 바꾸도록 지시했습니다. ISKP 지지자들은 7월 코란 소각에 대응하여 스웨덴에 대한 폭력적인 보복을 촉구했습니다. [60]유럽 표적에 대한 성공적인 ISKP 공격은 스웨덴을 표적으로 한 보복 공격을 성공적으로 수행하지 못한 Salafi-Jihadi 그룹 사이에서 ISKP의 인지도를 높임으로써 ISKP에 도움이 될 것입니다.
ISKP는 탈레반 정부를 불법화하려는 캠페인을 지원하기 위해 유럽에서의 공격을 사용할 수 있습니다. ISKP는 이전에 강경파 탈레반 지지자들이 ISKP로 탈북하도록 유도하려고 시도했습니다. [61] 탈레반은 7월 11일 꾸란이 불태우자 스웨덴 비정부 기구가 아프가니스탄에서 활동하는 것을 금지하면서 대응했습니다. 강경 비판에 대한 우려가 여전하다는 뜻이다. [62] 7월 13일, ISKP 선전은 탈레반 정부의 대응이 미약하다고 특징지었고 탈레반 정부가 서방 정부와 외교 관계를 계속 유지하고 있다고 비난했습니다. [63]
그림 5. 중앙아시아와 남아시아의 살라피-지하디 운동
출처: 캐스린 타이슨.
[1] https://www.afcent.af.mil/News/Article/3468819/russian-unprofessional-behavior-over-syria-23-july-2023 ; https://www.wsj.com/articles/russian-attack-on-us-drone-spurs-fears-of-...
[2] https://www.understandingwar.org/sites/default/files/PLANEX%20Report%202%20FINALFINAL_7.pdf ; https://www.criticalthreats.org/analysis/salafi-jihadi-movement-update-special-edition-iran-russia-and-syrian-prioritization-of-challenging-the-united-states-over-isis-will- 성장할 수 있는 공간이 있는 현시점 기능 휴식 및 수리
[3] https://www.inherentresolve.mil/WHO-WE-ARE
[4] https://twitter.com/thesyrianlions/status/1682147409088970752?s=20 ; https://npasyria dot com/151923
[5] https://www.criticalthreats.org/analysis/salafi-jihadi-movement-weekly-update-may-17-2023
[6] https://www.criticalthreats.org/analysis/ending-the-us-presence-in-syria-could-cause-a-rapid-isis-reconstitution-and-threaten-core-us-national-security -이해
[7] https://www.criticalthreats.org/analysis/isis-will-leverage-improved-attack-capabilities-to-generate-forces-in-syria
[8] https://www.criticalthreats.org/analysis/salafi-jihadi-movement-update-special-edition-iran-russia-and-syrian-prioritization-of-challenging-the-united-states-over-isis -그 능력을 성장시킬 수 있는 공간과 함께 이시스를 제시할 것입니다.
[9] https://www.criticalthreats.org/analysis/salafi-jihadi-movement-weekly-update-january-18-2023
[10] 저자의 연구; https://www.criticalthreats.org/analysis/ending-the-us-presence-in-syria-could-cause-a-rapid-isis-reconstitution-and-threaten-core-us-national-security-interests ; https://www.criticalthreats.org/analysis/salafi-jihadi-movement-weekly-update-may-4-2023
[11] https://www.mei.edu/publications/isis-beats-back-wagner-offensive-central-syria
[12] https://twitter.com/lou_zay/status/1681925587131154434?s=20
[13] https://www.alaraby dot co.uk/node/6849309; https://shaam dot org/news/syria-news/anbaa-an-azl-alkhbyl-sraa-khfy-byn-qsd-wwajhtha-alaskryh-bdyralzwr; https://twitter.com/Sharqya_reporte/status/1684108060661366784 ; https://twitter.com/Sharqya_reporte/status/1683850329228468224
[14] https://twitter.com/DeirEzzore/status/1683910660537606180
[15] https://jihadology.net/2023/06/22/new-issue-of-the-islamic-states-newsletter-al-naba-396 ; ISIS 주장은 요청 시 제공됩니다.
[16] https://www.counterextremism.com/blog/isis-redux-central-syria-insurgency-june-2023 ; https://jihadology.net/2022/07/28/new-issue-of-the-islamic-states-newsletter-al-naba-349
[17] https://www.counterextremism.com/blog/isis-redux-central-syria-insurgency-june-2023
[18] https://www.criticalthreats.org/analysis/salafi-jihadi-movement-update-special-edition-local-protests-suggest-new-isis-support-zone-in-northeastern-deir-ez-zor -시리아
[19] https://twitter.com/thesyrianlions/status/1683597095654105092?s=20 ; https://www.crisisgroup.org/middle-east-north-africa/east-mediterranean-mena/syria/containing-resilient-isis-central-and-north
[20] https://www.carep-paris.org/wp-content/uploads/2023/05/Felix_Legrand_tibalisme_politique_DeirEzzor.pdf
[21] https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/09592318.2020.1713529 ; https://www.carep-paris.org/wp-content/uploads/2023/05/Felix_Legrand_tibalisme_politique_DeirEzzor.pdf
[22] https://www.reuters.com/world/africa/soldiers-nigers-presidential-guard-blockade-presidents-office-security-sources-2023-07-26 ; https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2023/7/26/soldiers-holding-niger-president-inside-palace-security-source ; https://www.jeuneafrique.com/1467056/politique/au-niger-tentative-de-coup-detat-contre-mohamed-bazoum
[23] https://www.jeuneafrique.com/1467056/politique/au-niger-tentative-de-coup-detat-contre-mohamed-bazoum
[24] https://twitter.com/PresidenceNiger/status/1684165019787984898?s=20 ; https://twitter.com/julienfanciulli/status/1684238871179952130?s=20 ; https://twitter.com/HousseyneAg/status/1684225179801583617?s=20 ; https://twitter.com/Wamaps_news/status/1684215910498705408?s=20
[25] https://twitter.com/julesdhl/status/1684196337150046208?s=20 ; https://twitter.com/Wamaps_news/status/1684215910498705408?s=20
[26] https://twitter.com/almouslime/status/1684242305975300115?s=20 ; https://twitter.com/almouslime/status/1684243659162628115?s=20 ; https://twitter.com/konate90/status/1684241536718974990?s=20
[27] https://www.criticalthreats.org/analysis/salafi-jihadi-movement-weekly-update-may-10-2023#Sahel20230510 ; https://www.criticalthreats.org/analysis/salafi-jihadi-movement-weekly-update#Mali20230714
[28] https://africacenter.org/spotlight/mali-catastrophe-accelerating-under-junta-rule ; https://www.bbc.com/news/world-africa-62052598 ; https://www.hrw.org/news/2023/06/29/burkina-faso-unlawful-killings-disappearances-army
[29] https://www.voanews.com/a/french-forces-complete-departure-from-mali-/6702201.html ; https://www.reuters.com/world/africa/burkina-faso-marks-official-end-french-military-operations-its-soil-2023-02-19 ; https://www.criticalthreats.org/analysis/salafi-jihadi-movement-weekly-update#Mali20230714
[30] https://www.criticalthreats.org/briefs/africa-file/africa-file-burkina-faso-coup-signals-deepening-governance-and-security-crisis-in-the-sahel
[31] https://www.france24.com/en/live-news/20230523-in-niger-france-tests-out-new-strategy-for-africa-operation ; https://www.cnn.com/2018/05/10/politics/niger-american-troops-presence/index.html ; https://www.dw.com/en/german-ministers-visit-niger-mali-as-military-focus-changes/a-65291853 ; https://finabel.org/european-forces-to-relocate-from-mali-to-niger-in-fight-again-jihadist-insurgents ; https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2022/4/22/niger-debates-hosting-more-european-forces-withdrawing-from-mali
[32] https://www.criticalthreats.org/analysis/salafi-jihadi-movement-weekly-update-april-19-2023#Sahel20230419
[33] https://www.state.gov/the-united-states-and-niger-a-strategic-partnership
[34] https://sgp.fas.org/crs/row/IF11267.pdf
[35] https://www.bbc.com/news/world-africa-64451376 ; https://www.thenewhumanitarian.org/news-feature/2023/02/28/why-niger-protest-france-anti-jihadist-campaign-interviews
[36] https://www.bbc.com/news/world-africa-64451376 ; https://www.criticalthreats.org/briefs/africa-file/africa-file-wagner-group-deployment-to-mali-threatens-counterterrorism-efforts ; https://www.criticalthreats.org/briefs/africa-file/africa-file-wagner-group-in-burkina-faso-will-help-the-kremlin-and-hurt-counterterrorism
[37] https://www.jeuneafrique.com/1467056/politique/au-niger-tentative-de-coup-detat-contre-mohamed-bazoum ; https://www.africaintelligence.com/west-africa/2022/09/30/bazoum-struggles-to-emancipate-himself-from-predecessor-issoufou ; https://twitter.com/HousseyneAg/status/1684225179801583617?s=20
[38] https://world-nuclear.org/information-library/country-profiles/countries-gn/niger.aspx
[39] https://www.criticalthreats.org/analysis/salafi-jihadi-movement-special-edition-wagner-will-remain-in-africa
[40] https://twitter.com/samirasabou/status/1684225542520799233?s=20
[41] https://reliefweb.int/report/niger/ocha-niger-mouvement-de-population-dans-le-departement-de-say-update-1-situation-des-deplacements-au-10-juillet -2023년
[42] 저자의 연구.
[43] https://twitter.com/cozyduke_apt29/status/1676841601291911169 ; https://twitter.com/KhyberScoop/status/1680543466168647681?s=20 ; https://twitter.com/AfghanAnalyst2/status/1680571824524996610
[44] https://www.atlanticcouncil.org/blogs/new-atlanticist/how-the-taliban-did-it-inside-the-operational-art-of-its-military-victory
[45] https://ctc.westpoint.edu/the-tehrik-i-taliban-pakistan-after-the-talibans-afghanistan-takeover
[46] https://ctc.westpoint.edu/the-role-of-lashkar-i-islam-in-pakistans-khyber-agency
[47] https://www 닷새벽닷컴/news/1173892 See More
[48] https://www 닷 새벽닷컴/news/1173892; https://ctc.westpoint.edu/the-revival-of-the-pakistani-taliban ; https://www.nydailynews.com/news/world/pakistan-military-kills-32-militants-killed-tirah-valley-article-1.2050737
[49] https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/salafi-jihadi-movement-weekly-update-june-28-2023
[50] https://www.cnn.com/2022/12/15/middleeast/taliban-afghan-pakistan-ttp-americas-problem-intl-hnk/index.html ; https://rusi.org/explore-our-research/publications/commentary/resurgence-tehrik-i-taliban-pakistan
[51] https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/salafi-jihadi-movement-weekly-update-july-20-2023
[52] https://www.criticalthreats.org/analysis/salafi-jihadi-movement-weekly-update-july-20-2023
[53] https://en.qantara.de/content/extortion-and-intimidation-in-swat-valley-pakistan-taliban-racketeering-hits-borderlands ; https://www.usip.org/publications/2023/02/pakistan-poised-take-ttp
[54] https://www.rferl.org/a/pakistan-taliban-return-extortion/32044957.html
[ 55] https://www.dot.yenisafak.com/gundem/deasin-katliam-plani-4546580
[56] https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/swedish-police-approve-small-anti-koran-demonstration-mosque-2023-06-28 ; https://twitter.com/khorasandiary/status/1677273707985911808
[57] https://www dotaa dot com dot tr/en/politics/turkish-police-arrest-high-ranking-daesh-isis-terrorist-in-istanbul/2928673; https://home.treasury.gov/news/press-releases/jy0502 ; https://twitter.com/GregoryPWaters/status/1683522062785331200
[58] https://icg-prod.s3.amazonaws.com/s3fs-public/2023-03/239-containing-transnational-jihadists_0.pdf 의 18페이지를 참조하십시오 . https://twitter.com/GregoryPWaters/status/1683522062785331200
[59] https://icg-prod.s3.amazonaws.com/s3fs-public/2023-03/239-containing-transnational-jihadists_0.pdf 의 18페이지를 참조하십시오 . https://twitter.com/GregoryPWaters/status/1683522062785331200
[60] https://twitter.com/khorasandiary/status/1677273707985911808
[61] https://www.crisisgroup.org/asia/south-asia/afghanistan/afghanistans-security-challenges-under-taliban
[62] https://twitter.com/Zabehulah_M33/status/1678619123172139008 ; https://www dot etilaatroz dot com/173626 See More
[63] https://twitter.com/khorasandiary/status/1679515038858592256 ; https://twitter.com/abdsayedd/status/1680892920705036288
파일 첨부:
|