BOK unlikely to cut key rate before Q4 한은, 연준 결정에 맞춰 4분기 이전에 기준금리 인하 가능성 낮음

[김우정]

예상대로 한국은행은 미국연준의 기준금리 인하후인 올해 4분기중에 금리를 인하할 것으로 보입니다.
파월연준의장은 소비자물가지수가 긍정적이지만 금리인하전 추가확신이 필요하다고 말했습니다.
이창용 한은 총재도 비둘기파로 전환한 뒤 물가상승으로 금리를 재인상하면 그 대가 크다고 합니다.
특히 1,370~1,380원 대에 머므르고 있는 환율은 물가상승의 큰 요인입니다.
결론 적으로 한은은 4분기에 한차례 금리를 내린 후 추가인하는 내년으로 미룰 것으로 보입니다.
 
BOK unlikely to cut key rate before Q4, aligning with Fed decision
한은, 연준 결정에 맞춰 4분기 이전에 기준금리 인하 가능성 낮음

By Lee Yeon-woo 이연우 기자
Posted : 2024-06-13 16:08 Updated : 2024-06-13 16:10
Korea Times

Bank of Korea (BOK) Governor Rhee Chang-yong speaks during a press meeting at the central bank in Seoul, May 23, to explain its decision to maintain the policy rate at 3.5 percent. Yonhap 이창용 한국은행 총재가 5월 23일 서울 중앙은행에서 기자회견을 갖고 정책금리를 3.5%로 유지하기로 한 결정을 설명하고 있다. 연합

Both central banks exercise caution on premature rate cuts for price stability
두 중앙은행 모두 물가안정을 위해 섣부른 금리인하에 신중

With the U.S. Federal Reserve (Fed) maintaining a cautious stance on changing its monetary policy, the Bank of Korea (BOK) is expected to follow suit and delay a rate cut until at least the fourth quarter of this year, according to market watchers, Thursday.
미국 연방준비제도(Fed·연준)가 통화정책 변경에 신중한 입장을 유지하고 있는 가운데 한국은행도 이를 따라 금리 인하 시기를 최소 올해 4분기까지 미룰 것으로 전망된다.

Both the U.S. and Korea remain concerned that lowering policy rates prematurely during a phase of persistently high inflation could undermine overall price stability.
미국과 한국 모두 지속적으로 높은 인플레이션 국면에서 정책금리를 조기에 인하하는 것은 전반적인 물가 안정을 해칠 수 있다는 우려를 가지고 있다.

On Wednesday (local time), the Fed held a regular meeting of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) and unanimously agreed to maintain the policy rate at 5.25 to 5.5 percent. It also significantly reduced this year's expected number of rate cuts from three to one.
연준은 수요일(현지 시간) 연방공개시장위원회(FOMC) 정례회의를 열고 정책금리를 5.25~5.5%로 유지하기로 만장일치로 합의했다. 또 올해 예상되는 금리인하 횟수를 3회에서 1회로 대폭 줄였다.

This is the seventh time that the Fed held the rate steady since July of last year. The policy rate gap between Korea and the U.S. also remained at a historic high of 2 percentage points following the decision.
연준이 금리를 안정적으로 유지한 것은 지난해 7월이후 이번이 7번째다. 한미 간 정책금리차도 결정 이후 사상 최고치인 2%에 머물렀다.

"Fed Chair Jerome Powell positively eval‎uated consumer price index results, but maintained a cautious stance, stating that he needs further confidence in stabilizing prices before cutting interest rates and that the tempo may be slower than what the market expects," said Park Jong-woo, deputy governor of the BOK, during the meeting at the central bank.
박종우 한은 부총재보는 이날 한은 회의에서 "제롬 파월 연준의장이 소비자물가지수 결과를 긍정적으로 평가하면서도 금리 하 전 물가안정에 대한 추가확신이 필요하며 시장이 기대하는 것보다 템포가 느릴 수 있다는 입장을 밝히며 신중한 입장을 유지했다,"고 말했다.

 
The BOK shares a similar outlook with the Fed regarding rate cuts.
한은은 금리 인하와 관련해 연준과 비슷한 전망을 내놓고 있다.

"If we are forced to raise interest rates again due to inflation after prematurely shifting to a dovish stance, the policy costs at that time would be much higher," BOK Governor Rhee Chang-yong said during a speech on Wednesday celebrating the central bank's 74th anniversary.
이창용 한은 총재는 어제 한은 창립 74주년 기념사에서 섣불리 비둘기파로 전환한 뒤 물가상승으로 금리를 다시 올릴 수밖에 없다면 그때의 정책비용은 훨씬 더 클 것이라고 말했다.

"Therefore, it is crucial to patiently maintain the current tight monetary policy until we are confident that inflation will reach the target level of 2 percent," Rhee added.
"따라서 인플레이션이 목표 수준인 2%에 도달할 것이라고 확신할 때까지 현재의 긴축적인 통화정책을 인내심 있게 유지하는 것이 중요하다,"고 이총재는 덧붙였다.

Consumer prices in Korea have decreased from the 3 percent range in February and March to the upper 2 percent range in April and May.
국내 소비자물가는 2, 3월 3%대에서 4, 5월 2%대 초반으로 떨어졌다.

However, concerns of upward pressure on consumer prices are unavoidable due to persistently high international oil prices and the weak Korean won, which remains at 1,370 to 1,380 won per U.S. dollar.
그러나 지속적인 고유가와 달러당 1,370~1,380원대에 머물고 있는 원화 약세로 인해 소비자물가 상승압력에 대한 우려는 불가피하다.

Experts also believe that both central banks will not rush to cut rates.
전문가들도 두 중앙은행 모두 금리 인하를 서두르지 않을 것으로 보고 있다.

The widely-held scenario is that the Fed will lower the benchmark rate once or twice from September at the earliest, while the BOK may lower the rate once in the fourth quarter and delay any further reductions until next year.
연준이 이르면 9월부터 한두 차례 기준금리를 내리고 한은이 4분기에 한 차례 금리를 내린 뒤 추가 인하 시기를 내년으로 미룰 수 있다는 게 중론이다.

Electronic signboards at KB Kookmin Bank in Seoul show the benchmark KOSPI closing at 2,754.89, Wednesday, up 0.98 percent from the previous session. The Korean currency closed at 1,373.9 won against the U.S. dollar, down by 2.3 won. Newsis 수요일 서울 KB국민은행 전광판에는 코스피가 전장보다 0.98% 오른 2,754.89로 마감됐다. 이날 서울 외환시장에서 달러당 원화 환율은 2.3원 내린 1,373.9원으로 거래를 마쳤다. 뉴시스

Joo Won, director of the Hyundai Research Institute, expects the BOK to cut the benchmark rate in October or November, following the Fed's decision in September. He noted that a preemptive rate cut by Korea is unlikely due to the potential exodus of foreign capital and the won-dollar exchange rate.
주원 현대경제연구소 연구실장은 지난 9월 연준의 결정에 따라 10월이나 11월 중 한은이 기준금리를 인하할 것으로 예상했다. 그는 외국인 자본의 이탈 가능성과 원-달러 환율 등으로 한국의 선제적 금리 인하 가능성은 낮다고 지적했다.

"The BOK will be concerned that if Korea lowers interest rates before the U.S. does, the exchange rate, currently at 1,360 to 1,370 won, could become more volatile," Meritz Securities analyst Yoon Yeo-sam said. "As factors that could trigger financial instability, such as real estate project financing, are currently under control, the immediate need to lower rates has diminished."
윤여삼 메리츠종금증권 애널리스트는 "한국이 미국보다 먼저 금리를 내리면 현재 1,360~1,370원 수준인 환율의 변동성이 커질 수 있다는 점을 한은이 우려할 것,"이라며 "현재 부동산 프로젝트 파이낸싱 등 금융불안을 촉발할 수 있는 요인들이 통제되고 있어 당장 금리를 내릴 필요성이 줄어든 것."이라고 분석했다

Yoon also predicted that the Fed would implement a rate cut in September, followed by the BOK in October.
윤 애널리스트는 또 연준이 9월 금리 인하를 단행하고 이어 10월에는 한은이 금리 인하를 단행할 것으로 내다봤다.

Following the rate freeze, the domestic financial market showed stable movements. The lower-than-anticipated U.S. consumer price index, which helped the New York stock market reach an all-time high, also positively influenced the domestic market.
금리 동결에 이어 국내 금융시장도 안정적인 움직임을 보였다. 뉴욕 증시가 사상 최고치를 경신하는 데 일조한 미국 소비자물가지수가 예상보다 낮은 것도 국내 시장에 긍정적인 영향을 미쳤다.

The benchmark KOSPI closed at 2,754.89 on Wednesday, up 0.98 percent compared to the previous session. The Korean currency ended at 1,373.9 won against the dollar, down by 2.3 won.
어제 코스피는 전장보다 0.98% 오른 2,754.89에 거래를 마쳤다. 달러당 원화 환율은 2.3원 내린 1,373.9원에 거래를 마쳤다.

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