week 8 박계빈

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The Pros and Cons of Universal Basic Income

Why we may all need UBI soon.

Brian Lamacrafthttps://medium.com/thoughts-economics-politics-sustainability/pros-and-cons-of-universal-basic-income-d7bd11b5864f

Poverty UBI Plus

One of the good things about a universal basic income system is it helps to eliminate poverty for the most part. It gives people enough money for their basic needs and necessities. They would still have to watch how much they spend, but their basic requirements for a living would be looked after by this income. This would be a positive thing, and it would help a lot of people that are struggling in their life. Poverty can be immensely draining on someone, and it doesn’t allow them to do anything else with their life because they are struggling just to make money.

Poverty UBI Minus

While there are people living in poverty that are struggling, there are people living in poverty that have chosen to be in poverty. They don’t want to work, and they don’t want to contribute to society. They may also have problems such as drug abuse, and they are not looking for help. If we give people money that they don’t want to work, they’re not going to contribute anything to society. They would end up spending that money on drugs, alcohol, and other things. In fact, it puts a drain on society as we have to look after these people in hospitals when they overdose. I am not too fond of giving people that are drug abusers a universal basic income so they can spend their money on drugs.

Incentive UBI Plus

Some people argue that a universal basic income gives people the incentive to do the jobs that they want to do and not the ones that they have to do. When you have to make a living normally, you have to take jobs that you don’t necessarily like. This is because you need the income, and if you don’t work, you’re going to starve to death. Some argue that if you have enough money to look after yourself, you’re going to be more inclined to do work that you actually enjoy. For example, you might start up a business and do something that you have always dreamed of. You can’t do this normally because your income doesn’t allow you to do it. You are stuck in the same dead-end job and have to struggle for your income.

Incentive UBI Minus

While normal working people would probably take the money from UBI and spend it rationally, I have a problem with young people that are just starting out in the labor force getting a universal basic income. I know that when I was a young person if I was given money for doing nothing, I would be spending it on beer, pizza, movies, and concerts. I would not be thinking of going to my local job office looking for a job. Why should I look for a job when I’ve already been giving money from the government? I have no incentive to go looking for a job because I already have my basic needs looks after. I could get together with a few of my buddies, rent a place, and have tons of money left over for parties. There is no incentive for me to go out and get the job. I already have money given to me, so why should I even work at all?

Saving Money UBI Plus

If someone has a universal basic income, they might be able to save some of that income or invest it. They would probably have extra income left over if they had a job that they could put into savings or pay off some of their bills. This is actually a great idea, and it would help people have money left over for emergencies. A lot of people today that is working don’t have any money whatsoever for emergencies because they live paycheck to paycheck. If they don’t get that paycheck, they have no money to pay for their bills.

Saving Money UBI Minus

When you are just given money, you might not be inclined to save it. You might be more inclined to simply spend it on things you don’t need. I know if I was given money as a young person, I’d be more inclined to spend it on the stupid things because I haven’t learned the value of a dollar. When you are working and earning money, you tend to understand what your money is capable of doing for you. If you spend it wisely, you can still save some of it. When someone is just giving money, they don’t learn the value of money. They will just have money handed to them each month, and they won’t have to actually work for that money. They may tend to be lazy and spend it on things they don’t need and not have any savings.

UBI and Job Loss

The future is changing a lot, and it’s not a future that I’m really looking forward to. Many of the jobs that we take for granted today are going to be gone in the future due to artificial intelligence, robotics, and other technology. I’m not too sure if we’re going to be able to replace those jobs with anything that is meaningful. There may be a whole lot of people that are unable to make any money whatsoever because all of the basic jobs are taken away.

Not everyone is able to learn high technology skills. Not everyone is able to go to school and learn at a high level so they can take on jobs that are going to pay them a lot of money. In the past, we had manufacturing jobs and other jobs that didn’t take a whole lot of intelligence. You didn’t need a good education to do many of these jobs. As long as you had a bit of skill with your hands, you could make a lot of money and support your family. In the future, all of these jobs are going to be gone. They are going to be taken by robots, and there will be no need for people with these sorts of skills.

If this is the case, universal basic income will be the only way for people who have a lack of skill can make a living. All the other jobs will be taken by robots or artificial intelligence. There will be no servers, no tellers, no truck drivers, and no other basic jobs. This is because they will be taken over by technology. We have to figure out a way how all of these people are going to make a living.

Universal Basic Income: Machine Slavery Or Ultimate Freedom?

Kate LevchukFormer Contributor

https://www.forbes.com/sites/cognitiveworld/2018/08/10/universal-basic-income/#7ead04f54777

2 Major Views on UBI

Currently, we are faced with 2 major views of looking at the possibility of universal basic income:

1. People have nothing to do, lose “meaning of life,” degradation follows, drug abuse and porn consumption increases, we start losing the connection with reality and everyone goes mad

2. As people are no longer forced to perform menial and repetitive tasks to ensure their existence, we will see a boost of creativity, entrepreneurship and true self-care

While I am a strong adherent of the 2nd approach the discussion on UBI deserves more attention and thought.

Arguments against UBI:

• Psychological

It is hardly possible to imagine someone protesting that has a small passive income. In fact, the main difference between rich and poor people is the availability of passive income and the opportunity to afford to do nothing.

A possible con to be given a UBI is then a purely psychological one. Just as some modern billionaires choose to leave their children without heritage, so UBI critics argue “easy money” will lead to the degradation and loss of motivation. If we look at the stats on modern billionaires it is mainly self-made people that earned most of the world’s money and are able to multiply their wealth. Thus, the psychological argument is not in thin air.

Nevertheless, if we assume humanity advances so much as to offer everyone minimum passive income, we might as well acknowledge there will be no need for cut throat competition that fueled capitalism up till now.

• Practical

Millennials now come to realize the only thing we can rely on after retirement is our personal savings. And as a recent rock star article from HuffPost indicates, getting those in the current economy is harder than ever. Being given pension for doing nothing seems rather like a fairy tale so far.

8 billion people currently inhabit our Planet. In several decades the number will jump to 9 and it can get to 15 before we notice. How do we imagine providing everyone with a decent level of existence? How powerful should the robotics be to ensure 15 billion people are fed and happy without an intensive contribution to the workforce? While psychological arguments can be put aside for the period of “social experiments” the pure realization of a UBI idea is far from easy.

• Ethical

As they say, free cheese is found in the mousetrap. What conditions should a person fulfill in order to qualify for an effortless and bright existence? When and why did we get anything for free?

Chances are people will be offered UBI as an incentive to perform a certain action rather than an end goal in itself.

In a Brazilian dystopian TV series “ 3 %” of people were asked to undergo sterilization as a prerequisite to life among the “chosen ones.”

While childlessness might not be the most desired feature of a happy living, such a solution can clearly alleviate the problem of an overpopulation.

It is all about choice, you can say. Back to basics and market economy. People paid 20K dollars for a virtual currency last December. Why can’t they opt for sterilization in exchange for a happy and problem-free life?

Well, we had a choice and we were free to decide on our crypto gamble. The choice with UBI can be non-existent. Thus, it is either decent life for yourself or dooming you and your family to abject poverty and starvation. Not too ethical, is it?

Arguments in favor of UBI:

• No More Peer Pressure

Is professional achievement a prerequisite for happiness? Are people striving for richness to be happy and satisfied with their life?

We struggle for material possession and societal status in order to prove to others we can do it hoping Epicurean happiness comes along. 

It's not explained what's in it for us, but we accept competition and struggle as a given.  Being social animals, we immediately react to stimulus and adapt to the requirements of the social order around us.

The only way to pull ourselves from the rat race is to change the rules of the game. Robotics and AGI will be the ultimate game-changers.

Whom will you prove you can write a program or perform an operation when anything you could do is outdone by precise and powerful artificial intellect?

In the absence of competition, our anxiety and the need to prove oneself will disappear like an Arctic ice cap.

• Personal Initiative

How often do we catch ourselves on the thought: “I am doing my 9 to 5 to earn enough money to be able to realize my passion one day?" How often do we distinguish our “for fun” and “for work” activities? How many people are able to combine what they love and what they can get paid for? What is the percentage of the workforce that managed to find their “sweet spot?”

We can argue that the things we are passionate about are very rarely well paid. This is a perfect argument for people unwilling to take the risk. In reality, however, we are simply clinging to our safe havens of a working wage.

Risk tolerance of an average human is quite low. This makes him spend all his life aiming to realize the dream of a person who simply just chose to take the risk and build something new.

What if we were given a safe haven by default? Would we be more inclined to entrepreneurship if we had a basic income that would give us a decent level of life with no effort from our side?

Unlikely. No matter if you got zero or several thousand as a start. You would want more!

Not if there is no chance to earn more money by working for someone else, however. Not if a machine substitutes you in all practical fields of activity.

Art, philosophy and entertainment of one another might be the only things left to a human. We will have no more excuse to put aside our music classes, yoga or "War and Peace."

Very possible, we will finally find the time to do all the great things considered a “luxury” in the modern day social order.

• The Future is Now

How long will we keep living in the reality of individualism and capitalism? How long do we have to keep up with exhaustive work schedule and lack of personal time? Until a new way emerges that can prove its competitiveness to the reckless individualism and self-enrichment.

Looks like Scandinavian countries are paving the way for this new social order. Shorter work week, perfect healthcare, high pensions and a great welfare system is not science fiction anymore. It is a Scandinavian reality.

In fact, Nordic countries and Switzerland are leading the ranks as the happiest countries in the world. Four of the top five happiest countries follow the Nordic model of capitalism.

It looks like being burnt out is not a necessary precondition to building a successful career or a successful state. America inflicted capitalism is not the universal answer to our pursuit after all.

Why are we forced to believe people need a goal in life, motivation, self-fulfillment and taking pride in their work? Because this is what we are taught to believe; this is what keeps our social order stable.

People are constantly fed the idea of a doomed society in case UBI gets implemented. What can happen instead is the “Scandinavization” of the society, achievement of greater equality and higher standards of living.

America fought its way to the values dominance by an exhaustive war and a smartly implemented Marshall Plan. Scandinavia is pushing its model purely by the power of example.

All that’s left for the world is to eval‎uate and make a choice.

The discussion on UBI pros and cons can go on as long as we please. The beauty of the concept is the possibility of it happening without our involvement or consent.

Still, the important task here is to eval‎uate the most probable scenarios and prepare for them as best we can.

We may like the idea of UBI or not, but what is likely to happen and who can actually benefit from UBI?

• Not so Smooth

When were we given things just because we want or deserve them? Humanity had to fight their way to all the privileges we enjoy today. Moreover, such privileges tend to be historically-rooted. This means that each nation had to fight for its own rights. If they had not done so yet they would be left with the same conditions as centuries ago. Saudi Arabia's ongoing fight for women rights is a powerful example.

Movement to UBI will not happen overnight. It will be a long and hectic struggle with revolutions, labor movements and political parties fighting to grant people a decent level of life in the machine-controlled reality.

The whole political framework will have to shift. New economic models will have to be proposed and adopted by governments. States will have to adopt a more socialist stance to fulfill the UBI policies. Social experiments will take place in some regions to see its applicability and figure out the most cost-efficient ways to ensure a peaceful and satisfied population.

• Not so Universal

AI and robotics require a quite solid capital investment from the government and private sector. Very few countries will be able to realize such an investment fast, if at all. Thus, there will be just a handful of developed countries able to introduce such a feature to their citizens.

We have already heard some initiatives in Switzerland. No mention of it in Uganda or Yemen though. Sad truth is, there will be no mention of it for several more centuries if at all.

Big developed countries like the USA, France or UK will also have significant problems with providing UBI to the majority of their populations. Since economy sectors tend to be concentrated around certain geographical regions, the divide in automation will be drastically different throughout the regions.

Modern separatists’ movements will find a new boost with the increased automation of production. Being a part of big state or coping on your own might mean the difference between enjoying free money and having to struggle to compete with robotics.

The world will be divided into developed states on UBI and the rest. This will create two-ways immigration flows: economic migration to UBI Countries and " adrenaline migration" to the developing countries of Wild Capitalism.

• Very Basic

The amount one needs to feel comfortable varies greatly from individual to individual. Doubts aside, UBI will work only for those whose needs are very, very modest.

If we think that UBI will be close to what we can earn today with hard work, we should reconsider. We might want to have good accommodations, healthy food, great travel and quality time with our loved ones. My guess is UBI will allow us to have modest living conditions and decent food choices.

Want to be fancy? Live in a big mansion? Party with friends? Figure out how to do what AI cannot!

Being a success story in the era of robotics will be seriously different from what it is today. You might not be able to make a fortune by asset trading, plastic surgery operations or solving legal puzzles.