밥을 인용 : "이 이전에 순수 힌덴부르크 오멘 역사의 2 년 반 수십 년을 기준으로 무슨 일이 있었는지를 기반으로 하드 사실입니다."
그는이 수준을 마지막으로 본 시간이 2000 년 당신이 그 다음에 무슨 일이 있었는지 기억하십니까 년 3 월 7 일 2 월 29 일이라고 진술에 간다? 우리는 신용 수축의 다음 에피소드에 있습니까?
이제 단지 1987의 CRASH 이전부터 볼 극단적으로 설정 한 마지막 주식 시장 차트를 살펴 보자 :
도덕적 해이 (moral hazard)가 2008 년부터 연방 정부 조치의 초인적 인 수준의 의례에있다, 수준은 거의 역사에서 볼 수 없습니다. 이 차트는 설명이 필요했다, 곰 같은 감정은 다 십 년간 최저 수준입니다 ... 당신은 역 투자 할 말을 할 수 있겠습니까?
시장이 1970하지만 훨씬 더 큰 정도 유사한 WOLF 파에 (당신에게 개럿 존스에게 감사)하고 2016 년 선거에 머리에 경제가 부패 지구로 가공 손상에서 무너져 곧 2009 낮은 아래로 낙하한다 워싱턴과 2008 선택된 하나 :
미국 금리 상당한 차이로 개발 된 세계에서 가장 높은 지금, 구십일 오래된이 수익률 차트에서 수컷 거위를 취할 수 있습니다 :
이들 국가의 대부분은이 시간에 아주 조금 낮은하지만 미국은 미국 국채에 회전이 포효하고, 거의 변경되지 않습니다. 많은 EU 국가에서 2 년 수익률은 50 베이시스 포인트 이상 미국 수율 ZERO 2 년 동안에 있습니다. 당신은 달러 친절한 말을 할 수 있겠습니까? 2000 낮은 오프 결합 황소가 공급 폭발적으로 도드 프랭크는 시장 유동성을 파괴했다 :
한편, 비 정부 부채에 대한이자의 비율이 높은 의존하고, JNK (정크)에 의해 주도. 댄 올리버에 의해 가장 최근의 Myrmikan 업데이트 (난 당신이 가입 촉구)에서 발췌 볼 수 있습니다 :
그리고 것 만기 벽 연준의 금리 상승 환경 의례에 충족되어야합니다 :
In today's TedBits we will be outlining a lot of smoke signals. They signal fires burning and about to break out. As everyone is aware, the Federal Reserve has been tightening monetary policy for almost a year now and has been joined by the Chinese central bank. The Federal Reserve has been reducing its balance sheet expansion from $85 billion a month (85,000 million) to zero in mid-November. While the fed does not characterize it as a tightening, it is one. Numerous studies have put the amount of interest rate reduction to -3 % when QE3 was at full bore. Now that the reduction is approaching zero negative interest rates are ending, they have raised rates by about 3% in real terms. We are Austrians at TedBits and believe in all of the core truths from Ludwig Von Mises:
"There is no means of avoiding the final collapse of a boom brought about by credit expansion. The alternative is only whether the crisis should come sooner as the result of a voluntary abandonment of further credit expansion, or later as a final and total catastrophe of the currency system involved." - Ludwig von Mises
This is the state of the world today. The financial system and governments would collapse if credit could not expand and steal from the future. It is their lifeblood. They have created a world where they always can borrow, but have made no provision for the repayment. It is a Ponzi scheme. The math can no longer work anywhere you look. Since the math can't be made to work it is obvious that covert techniques of money printing are fully engaged and no one within the system dares yell, "Fire!" and call them out on their betrayals. Since Bretton Woods II in August 1971 when our leaders betrayed us by substituting IOUs for money, our world has become one big credit expansion, everywhere and always, REAL growth has INCREASINGLY ceased. If there wasn't lending for consumption called growth, the world's economies would rightly be called in a depression. It truly is INFLATE or DIE. Without it, our Ponzi economies and welfare states would collapse in the insolvency they inhabit. It is why our economies have become financialized to extract every penny in one way or another that they can from the public and transfer it to the government and the financial systems which control them (central banks and the their shareholders). We are debt slaves and serfs to global socialist elites, which are morally and fiscally bankrupt.
Easy money creation out of thin air has allowed politicians to cover up poor policy decisions and buy votes for decades, and the accumulated poison is now overwhelming the ability of the global economies to grow. Clearing out those DECADES of bad policies choices will be almost impossible. To do so has turned what would have been a roadside bomb of POLICY adjustment into a NUCLEAR BOMB of systemic changes. The governments that have put these anti-growth policies in place now have no memory of the policies required to create growth. Freedom and free markets, Capitalism (more for less) sound money and private property rights have all gone the way of the DODO bird: EXTINCT. Thus, the restoration of these things is INCONCEIVABLE to them. Nothing less will avoid the demise Von Mises speaks of. Debt cannot compound relentlessly without the economic growth to service it. It is called debt spirals and imminent leverage failures and it is everywhere. We will show you several today.
Janet Yellen has been on a honeymoon since becoming fed chairperson and that situation is about to change in my opinion. If you look back at the history of new fed chairmen they have always faced a challenge and Janet's challenge is coming to the plate. It will be Bigger than 2000 and 2008 I believe. Keep in mind one of Ben Bernanke's recent comments that he believes interest rates will not rise again in his lifetime. Why? You ask? Because the leverage in the system will collapse the very financial assets and governments which underpin the global financial systems. It is INFLATE or DIE and it provides the additional benefit of feeding insolvent welfare states and the socialist politicians to feed their Useful Idiot supporters. Today's missive will put some meaning into that observation.
First, let's look at some parts of the global banking systems as a percentage of GDP in their respective economies:
Notice the average in the Eurozone is a GIGANTIC 349% of GDP in 2013 (600% in the Swiss banking giants). If those assets declined in value by a mere 10% (hardly a correction), the average checks those governments would have to write is 35% of a year's GDP. Where would that money come from as these countries have surrendered the printing press to the ECB (a political exercise to gather power). Their financial systems would collapse instantly. Since those same banks also have gorged on Eurozone debt, their toxic assets would be quite a bit larger. Although, keep in mind the Eurozone has passed laws calling sovereign debt risk free so it wouldn't cause them to have to raise reserves. But the falling prices of everything outside will. In reality, I believe some of that decline has already occurred and a regulatory approved cover up is underway.
Since Bretton Wood II removed the shackles of semi-sound money redeemable in gold, growth has become a function of credit expansion as illustrated by this chart of all credit market debt from the St Louis Federal Reserve:
That brief downturn, which began in 2008, almost destroyed the global financial system, but those losses remain embedded in the system and RISKS have grown as the world has created another $30 Trillion dollars of debt according the Bank of international settlements. Yes, that is $57.5 trillion dollars ($57.5 million million) of debt (US only), spread equally among the US it is $183,300 per person. If the average interest rate on that debt is just 4% (I believe it is much higher) then the USA needs to generate $2.301 trillion just to pay the interest on it, not including principal payment. Debt creation for GDP expansion is dying as it now it prohibitively expensive and has reached the point of diminishing returns:
Now for every dollar of new debt the US gets 8 cents of GDP!
The reported GDP of the USA is now approaching $16 Trillion ($16 million million).
If you subtract phantom GDP, which is about 17% of this number you are looking at $13.3 trillion. (Phantom GDP is economic activity in which no money is exchanged, for example if you own your house free and clear but could rent it out for $2500 they call that GDP, or a free checking account which they may estimate would cost $200 dollars a year, unfunded pensions called paid wages, etc.) To service the debt using the previous calculation of interest due, that $13.3 trillion must generate 17.3% just to service the debt before any wealth can be created. That 17.3% is being paid into the financial systems (banksters) and the lenders to the government.
Next let's look at the stock market - in my opinion a levitation completely spawned by the feds balance sheet expansion, friendly HFT, leveraging corporate balance sheets with buybacks, and the plunge protection team at the Federal Reserve's headquarters on Liberty Street in New York. All working hand in hand to foster confidence in the private sector, which has not benefited from the expansion for the most part as the spoils have gone to the big banks and pension funds for the most part. Here is look from Lance Roberts and streetalklive.com:
When you subtract the balance sheet expansion from stock prices, the bull market in stocks since 2009 would DISAPPEAR! It is an illusion provided by unsound money and debasement, stocks repricing to reflect the lower purchasing power of what they are denominated in. Look at the mountain of stocks bought back at the highs with LEVERAGE:
CORPORATIONS are more LEVERAGED than EVER, foolish CEOs and bitten the poison fruit and at previous lows they will be in negative equity. Think IBM!
Earnings growth and stock markets on all time high are a MAIN STREAM MEDIA and WALL STREET MIRAGE. This leverage boosts earnings when revenues don't grow and reduces taxes as the interest is DEDUCTIBLE. FINANCIAL ENGINEERING to fool the fools among us. The stock market is out on a limb, once again of leverage. This chart from www.dshort.com lays out the tremendous amount of leverage underpinning the stock market:
Stocks are AFLOAT on a SEA of LEVERAGE never before seen in HISTORY. I thought we had the final spike high last spring, but those highs in price were confirmed by many things such as advance decline lines, rsi and other internals. The most recent highs are all with bearish divergences across the board. This next chart is Tobin's Q ratio and it is also is at all-time highs excluding the mania high tech bubble in 2000:
Notice how previous highs preceded every major crash since 1900? When speaking of PRICE to sales ratios levels are at all-time highs and nosebleed levels!
But the whole rally since 2009 has been on plummeting volume:
The cyclical bull market since March 2009 has occurred on declining volume. In true bull markets, volume accompanies price. Since this is purely a bull market that has been financial engineered by the powers that be, price is higher and volume has crashed. This says it all. To make this DOUBLY Dangerous, HFT (high frequency trading) has become 60 to 80% of all the trading during this period. In 2008-9 it was less than 25%. Thus the REAL trading (HFT trade last seconds, not minutes, hours or days, it is a ghost of real trading and the volume is an illusion) that is occurring is probably down 80% from the highs. The HFT industry says they are bringing liquidity but during a crash and disorderly markets you can expect them to TURN OFF until orderly markets resume. They won't show up when needed... I promise!
The next chart is courtesy of Bob Hoye and his institutional advisors (I subscribe and urge you to do the same) and it is giving a Hindenburg Omen signal similar in magnitude to that last seen in March 2000.
Quoting Bob: "These are hard facts based what happened previously based on two and a half decades of pure Hindenburg Omen history."
He goes on to state that the last time he saw these levels were February 29th to March 7th, 2000. Do you remember what happened then? Are we at the next episode of credit contraction?
Now let's look at one last stock market chart that is set up at an extreme not seen since just before the CRASH of 1987:
Moral hazard is at superhuman levels courtesy of the Feds actions since 2008, levels rarely seen in history. This chart was self-explanatory, BEARISH sentiment is at multi decade lows... can you say be contrarian?
The markets are in a WOLF wave similar to the 1970s but to a much BIGGER degree (thank you Garrett Jones) and should soon plummet below the 2009 lows at it heads into the 2016 elections as the economy crumbles under the damage wrought by District of corruption in Washington and the chosen one since 2008:
US rates are the highest in the developed world by a considerable margin, take a gander at this yield chart which is now 90 days old:
Most of those countries are quite a bit lower at this time but the US is virtually unchanged, the rotation into US treasury debt is ROARING. In many EU countries 2 year yield are at ZERO while 2 years in the US yield over 50 basis points. Can you say dollar friendly? As the bond bull off the 2000 lows has exploded in supply, Dodd frank has destroyed market liquidity:
Meanwhile, Interest rates on non-government debts are TURNING higher, led by the JNK (junk). Lets look at an excerpt from the most recent Myrmikan update by Dan Oliver (I urge you to subscribe):
And the maturity wall that will have to be met into a rising interest environment courtesy of the Fed: